Nigeria @65: Electoral progress, setbacks and the journey ahead
As Nigeria marks 65 years of independence, the continent’s most populous nation has, despite challenges, recorded notable strides. ABDULRAHMAN ZAKARIYAU reflects on the country’s electoral journey, examining elections, progress, setbacks, lessons, and the path ahead toward an electoral system that produces leaders to deliver good governance Nigeria’s electoral system is best understood by tracing its journey since independence in 1960.
The story begins with the First Republic (1960–1966), followed by the Second Republic (1979–1983), then the brief Third Republic (1993–1999), and the current Fourth Republic, which began in 1999. Each republic has come with its own reforms aimed at shaping a system that truly serves the people. Over the decades, these reforms have sought to strengthen democracy, protect the people’s voice, and ensure that Nigerians genuinely enjoy the dividends of democratic governance.
The 1964/1965 parliamentary election was the first election held in Nigeria post-independence. The electoral growth was truncated following the military coup. So the Major General Aguiyi 1996 coup, General Yakubu Gowon, General Murtala Mohammed and General Olusegun Obasanjo’s 13-year reign as Heads of States at different time periods stunted the electoral growth Nigeria ought to have witnessed in the first Republic.With the return to democracy in 1979 under Obasanjo, key reforms emerged. The new Constitution lowered the voting age to 18, granted universal suffrage, and enabled elections that brought Shehu Shagari to power.
Though re-elected in 1983, his government was soon toppled by a military coup led by Major General Muhammadu Buhari, marking the end of the Second Republic.In the Third Republic, General Babangida’s regime tried to steer Nigeria back to democracy, drafting the 1989 Constitution and holding parliamentary elections in 1992. The June 12, 1993, presidential election, widely believed to have been won by Chief Moshood Abiola, was annulled by the electoral body, sparking nationwide protests, especially in the South-West. Amid the turmoil, Babangida stepped aside, handing power to an interim government led by Ernest Shonekan, which lasted only three months before another coup brought General Sani Abacha to power.
After Abacha’s sudden death in 1998, General Abdulsalami Abubakar took over and guided Nigeria’s return to democratic rule.The 1999 general election that brought Olusegun Obasanjo to power signified the beginning of Nigeria’s Fourth Republic, setting the stage for more than twenty years of democratic governance. Obasanjo was re-elected in 2003, while the 2007 polls, which produced the late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, were heavily criticised for widespread irregularities and violence. This led to the establishment of the Justice Uwais Electoral Reform Committee, whose work inspired the 2010 Electoral Act aimed at strengthening transparency in the process.
The 2011 elections were considered an improvement on 2007 but were still marred by electoral malpractice and violent outbreaks, particularly in northern Nigeria. The 2015 elections, conducted amid serious security concerns, stood out as Nigeria’s most competitive and credible, producing a historic moment when the late Muhammadu Buhari became the first opposition candidate to defeat a sitting president, Goodluck Jonathan. Buhari secured a second term in 2019, while the 2023 elections resulted in the emergence of President Bola Tinubu.Since independence, Nigeria’s electoral system has gradually evolved, simplifying processes, strengthening the Independent National Electoral Commission and empowering the judiciary.
Key milestones include the 1999 Constitution, which laid the foundation for democratic growth, and the Electoral Act 2002, which replaced military decrees while enhancing INEC’s authority and regulating party primaries and campaign financing.The Electoral Act 2006 introduced the electronic voter register and stricter rules for candidates and parties, while the 2010 Act (as amended) improved transparency in result collation, gave legal backing to smart card readers and biometric registration, and imposed tougher penalties for electoral offences.
In 2015, electoral guidelines introduced card readers for voter authentication. The most recent reform, the Electoral Act 2022, legalised electronic transmission of results, introduced the BVAS (Bimodal Voter Accreditation System), ensured more transparent primaries, set deadlines for candidate substitution and nomination, and further strengthened INEC’s independence.While these amendments have brought some progress, Nigeria’s elections still face serious challenges. Issues such as low voter turnout, widespread vote buying, violence, flawed voter registration, poor understanding and compliance with the 2022 Electoral Act, and endless court cases continue to undermine the electoral process and thus slow down the country’s electoral progress.
Reviewing Nigeria’s electoral development from 1960 to the present, the President of the Nigerian Political Science Association, Prof. Hassan Salihu, acknowledged that the country has recorded some progress but stressed the need for further improvements in key areas.Salihu stated, “Well, to the extent that you have been having feelings about elections, though controversial, and to the extent that we have been along the path of democracy, though with concerns, and against the background that democracy is not something readily available to every country in the same form, I would say Nigeria has not done badly, though there is room for improvement in strengthening democratic attainments.
Yes, there are issues, but by and large, our judiciary has been functioning, the electoral system has been functioning, and there is a general level of respect for the law. Thus, democracy is alive in Nigeria but not in perfect shape. “One key area that needs improvement is the political parties. Political parties are supposed to complement the democratic process in Nigeria, beyond being vehicles for nominating candidates. Their role goes further; they are meant to mobilise citizens, articulate policy frameworks, and open up the democratic space by being democratic in their own internal affairs.“If you look at our political parties today, you will see that we still have a long way to go.
Parties are often authoritarian and do not abide by their own constitutions. They do not believe in granting equal rights to their members. Some members are treated as more important than others, which should not be the case.“Another area is the mobilisation of citizens. Voter turnout is consistently low. If parties claim to have millions of members, why don’t those numbers reflect on Election Day? Clearly, they are failing in mobilisation. Even in policy debates, instead of parties providing collective viewpoints, individuals or candidates speak for themselves.
This makes personalities appear bigger than their parties, which is not healthy for democracy.”The professor warned that Nigeria should distinguish between practical reforms and political realities, noting that given the desperation of Nigerian politicians, electronic voting could be even more vulnerable to manipulation than manual voting.He continued, “Yes, people talk about reforms, but we must separate sensible reforms from political realities. For instance, proposals about removing the president’s influence in appointing the INEC chairman sound good in theory.
But will the National Assembly pass such a law? Will the president assent to it? These are real obstacles. Some reforms make sense but may not work under Nigeria’s political reality, where incumbents rarely act against their own interests.“ There is no doubt technology can improve elections. But we must be cautious. Even countries that tried technology have sometimes reverted to manual processes. In Nigeria, politicians have used hacking, manipulation, and fake results to undermine credibility.
Until we address this desperation and the misuse of resources, technology alone will not solve our electoral problems.“In conclusion, while Nigeria’s democracy has made progress, there is still much work to be done. Political parties must reform themselves, electoral processes must be strengthened, and citizens must be better mobilised to participate. Only then can democracy in Nigeria fulfil its true promise.”
National Secretary of the Coalition of United Political Parties, Peter Ameh, stated that the reforms implemented have not translated into improvements in the outcome of general elections.He stated, “The reforms have not reflected on the general purpose for which their intentions were meant to be, because the interest is to make reforms that will translate into transparent elections, credible elections that have electoral integrity, that will lead to people-oriented government, government made by the people.“
But, so far so good. There’s a gap where these reforms are manipulated for selfish reasons and also undermine the decisions of the people to elect their own leaders, because democracy can only be won by the people. It can only thrive, to tell the truth, it can only thrive when leaders know they cannot impose themselves on the people, when they know they cannot become the people that determine the outcome of an election, and that every vote will determine their outcome. When there’s a transparent process, like it’s happening in a lot of countries, but in Nigeria, we have not gotten there.“We would have lost it.
The human interference in our electoral process must be fully gauged. And this stems from the appointment process, the fact that people think they are more responsible to the appointing authority instead of looking at the constitution and looking at how their responsibility will have to expand the process. So that they are now making the review look like a hollow ritual. A ritual done repeatedly, yet it will remain in the same cycle running around.”Ameh urged the unbundling of INEC as a way to tackle existing challenges and strengthen the electoral system. He continued, “We must go and unbundle the commission. We must take out the overburdened work that the commission does. I can see the commission is struggling with their worry and delineation. Now, the commission is talking about the delineation of constituencies, which is their responsibility.
The commission is partnering and carrying out voter registration -part of their responsibility. The commission is talking about how to conduct elections, whether it’s staggered, off-cycle, or general elections -it’s their responsibility. As we speak, the commission is undertaking political party registration and regulation -it is their responsibility. Then the commission will also be responsible for post-electoral offensive issues. They are the only ones who can file those cases.“So the commission is not narrowly focused on conducting elections, which should be the primary purpose of the commission. So we must unbundle the commission. We must take the appointing authorities from the hands of the president, who is also a participant in the match.
”A political analyst and Director of the Abuja School of Social and Political Thoughts, Sam Amadi, noted that Nigeria’s electoral system has recorded some progress but emphasised the need for clearer articulation of certain provisions in the 2022 Electoral Act.He stated, “The truth of the matter is that the electoral system has gone far. The reform has gone far. INEC has done a lot of reform, and it’s clear that, in terms of electoral logistics and management issues, INEC has gone far.
In 2003, we saw that the safeguard created by the reforms had an impact, which is the transfer of election results and iREV.“The problem was that INEC, during the presidential election, decided to destroy that safeguard, which is basically two or three things. One: electronic accreditation. So we are now sure that the total votes we ever have will not be more than those who are true voters. So with that biometric system, we are now sure that we are able to guarantee up to 90% of credibility.“The second one is the judicial role, which states that whenever results are altered, it should be nullified.
The third was a real-time declaration of the result and upload to the iREV Portal. So it is now difficult to change results, because right from the polling units, the results will be sent to iREV, a public platform to view all results. So, INEC’s unfortunate action affected the 2023 elections.“ So, going forward, for me, they have to spell out some of these provisions expressly. So the Electoral Act must now expressly say two things. One, all results must be uploaded to the electronic iREV platform. Two, every result not so uploaded shall not be counted. If counted, then it shall be removed by the court.
If you do this, you have solved almost 80 per cent of the problem.“The matter concludes that, if you look at the history of elections in Nigeria, we have improved on the logistics and timing of elections. We have improved the timing of elections. We have improved on the result collation time and delivery of official results.”
